Hello everyone, this is Steve Roy, with the Equity Management Academy, where our focus is managing wealth, through education. Today is Friday, January 4th of 2013. This is OUR forecast for Silver prices for 2013 and beyond. This analysis uses our own proprietary indicators, Fibonacci cycles, W.D.Gann analysis, as well as wave analysis (not necessarily that of Elliott).
First, we are looking at a monthly continuation chart going back to 1971. I have used the Fibonacci expansion tool using a low in 1971 to the high in 1980. The 1.618% expansion of that move is $66.26, the 200% expansion is $81.56, and the 2.618% expansion is $106.31. I will base the rest of this analysis from the low in November, 2001 at $7.61, here.
Click HERE to see large chart 2
In order to get a better look, I have added a 9 month cycle from the 2001 low, and it ends in February of 13, and again in November. Notice how, for the most part, this cycle shows highs to highs, except when the market corrected or consolidated. In this chart, I have included the Gann fan connecting the first two major tops of the move off of the 2001 low. Isn’t it amazing that the high in 2011 hit the 2×1 line and sold off? This is alerting ME to accelerating movement in the up trending move.
Click HERE to see large chart 3
Now, we see the Fibonacci retracements of the impulse waves 1 & 3. The chart is a little messy, but I will clarify it now. Wave 1 was from Nov 2001 low, to the high in March of 2008. We then had an ABC correction down to the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement; a perfect Gartley pattern (wave 2). The ensuing impulse wave 3, terminated in April of 2011, and we have been in a wave 4 correction until June of 2012. I’ll explain why in a few minutes.
Click HERE to see large chart 4
Click HERE to see large chart 5
I have now added a Fibonacci expansion to Wave 1. Notice how the 2.618 expansion nailed the top of Wave 3. In this chart, I have added the Fibonacci expansion to Wave 3. The 2.618 expansion is at $116.81. The 2.000 expansion is at $91.49. The 1.618 expansion is at $75.85. Now, we have some price targets for the upcoming wave 5 of the move. Let’s see when this move might happen.
We are now looking at the move from November 2001 with the Gann fan, and I have added the 76 month cycle. This is measured from the low to the high that culminated Wave 1 in March of 2008. The end of that cycle culminates in July of 2014. This suggests the end of Wave 5 at $65.00 and change, or $91.49.
I want to give you a wide view of the 15 month cycle starting from the high in 1980. Notice how it showed nearly every trend change since then, including the low in 2008, the high in 2011, and what I think is the low in July of this year. This cycle ends in October of 2013 and in January of 2015.
Click HERE to see large chart 8
This chart shot shows the Fibonacci extension numbers from the 2008 low, the 2011 high and the low in June of 2012. The 1.000 extension comes in at $67.53. The 1.618 extension intersects with the cycle end in October, as well as the Gann 3×1 line at a price of $93.13.
Earlier, I promised you that I would show you why I think the 4th wave ended in June of 2012. Let’s take a look at this chart. This is a weekly chart with the 65 period cycles, which is the same as the 15 MONTH cycle. This cycle terminated in July of 2012, and the low was in June. Note that the 1.618 extension of the Wave 3 move is $91.98; eerily close to the $91.49 price that we got earlier from the monthly chart. This indicates to me that the rally from the low in June, and subsequent completion of the ABC correction of that wave, which I detailed in a previous video (click here to view) sets us up for the next impulse wave higher.
Based on my analysis, I think silver will go above $90.00 in 2013, on its way to much higher prices later on. If you have any questions or comments, you can reach me toll free from anywhere in the United States at 877.733.1511 or from anywhere in the world at 805.418.1744, or you can send me an Email at firstname.lastname@example.org. That’s E M A, the number2, trade.com. Thankyouverymuch, and Happy Trading. To find out more about the Equity Management Academy, visit our website at EMA2trade .com, or check us out on Facebook and twitter.